Xingye Securities

Investment points
  Home Furnishing Plate: (1) Themoment information website effect of Beijing and Shanghai New Deal: According to CRIC monitoring, since the new policy has been launched, there are about 248 sets of transactions in Beijing's new houses in a few days.108%, compared with the average of 147 sets of transactions in November 2023, also increased significantly by 69%.From the perspective of Shanghai, the average daily transaction set has increased from 143 before the new policy to 146 sets, which is relatively limited.Compared with the new house, the second -hand market has changed more significantly. The adjustment of Puzhai's identification has brought a significant tax and fee saving to the second -hand market transactions, especially the early buying price.Essence(2) The transaction area of 30 major and medium-sized cities this week has improved and year-on-year pressure: this week (December 24th-December 30th, 2023) 30 large and medium-sized cities' commercial housing transaction area of 3.71 million square meters (month-on-month+21.1% month-on-month, Year-on-year-10.2%), of which first-tier cities were sold for 650,000 square meters (month-on-month-5.5%, year-on-year-9.8%), 2.31 million square meters in second-tier cities (month-on-month+27.6%, -12.2%year-on-year), 75 transactions in third-tier cities 7510,000 square meters (month-on-month+33.1%, -4.0%year-on-year).(3) Second-hand housing tracking: From December 18th to December 24th, 2023, the transaction area of the second-hand housing in 14 key monitoring cities was 1.517 million square meters, an increase of 6%month-on-month, and the low base increased by 77%year-on-year.From the previous month, key cities have risen in half. The transactions in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou have increased by 2-3%month-on-month. Chengdu, Nanjing, Suzhou, etc. have fallen, but the decline is generally within 5%.In terms of year -on -year, most cities' transactions were higher than the same period last year.
  Papermaking sector: (1) Asia -Pacific Mori announced in January 2024 Broad -leaved paste price: Asia -Pacific Senbo broad leaf beef has completed the Plot in December, it is planned to rise by 200 yuan/ton in January 2024.Recently, the sales price of China's pulp market has declined. At present, sellers are sold at a price of $ 650 per ton, but the sales volume has decreased compared with the previous months. The recently announced prices of pulp rose $ 10 to prevent the price from further decline.(2) Paper price tracking: ① Cultural paper: This week's double -glue paper quotation is 5908 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.6%month -on -month, and a year -on -year decrease of 11.3%.%.② Box board corrugated paper: The inventory of the corrugated paper factory of the box plate continues to accumulate slowly. The factory adjusts the price according to the base inventory situation.Rebate policy.This week's boxes and paper were priced at 3856 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.01%month -on -month and a year -on -year decrease of 12.8%. This week's corrugated paper quotation was 2938 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.1%month -on -month, a year -on -year decrease of 9.9%.
  Export sector: (1) A good favorable cross -border policy: On December 15, 2023, the website of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a notice on expanding the high -level open pilot pilot of cross -border trade investment.The notice mentioned that it was decided to expand the implementation of cross -border trade investment high -level open -border trade investment high -level open -border trade investment high -level open -border trade investment high -level open -border trade investmentPilot, facilitate more business entities to handle cross -border trade investment business compliance, and promote high -quality development at high levels of openness.(2) TIKTOK Indonesian e -commerce restart: On December 11, 2023, Tiktok issued a statement with the Indonesian technology giant GOTO stating that Tiktok Shop Indonesia's business and Tokopedia will merge into PTTOKOPEDIA.TIKTOK promises to make long -term investment worth over $ 1.5 billion in PTTOKOPEDIA and has a controlling equity.
  Packaging sector: Q3 and Q4 in 2023 are usually the peak season for packaging demand. Considering the low base and cost downward in 2022, the performance of the packaging sector is expected to continue the high increase in 2023Q2, of which the profit growth rate is expected to be higher.
  Individual care sector: In October 2023, some companies concentrated their promotional resources to the Double 11 promotion, or caused consumer demand to be released, which has an impact on the current sales.A year-on-year-9.4%.Double 11 and Double 12 are important promotional festivals at the end of the year, and their contributions in the single quarter accounted for relatively large.Some companies announced the Double 11 situation.The store (October 31, 2023 to November 11) ranks fourth in industry stores, an increase of 80%+; the "reliable" brand adult diaper Tmall category hot list and JD category racing list are the first.
  Investment suggestions: The bottom of the market shocks and rebounds, the mood has improved in the short term, the pressure on the capital side after New Year's Day has weakened, and incremental funds are expected to gradually enter the market. It is recommended to pay attention to the valuation of the target at the bottom.Zhibang Home Furnishing, etc., the papermaking sector is recommended to pay attention to the solar paper industry. The export sector is recommended to pay attention to the Zhiou Technology, Jianlin Home, Yongyi, Henglin, etc.New shares, etc., the protection sector recommends paying attention to Baiya, Jieya, and Mingyue lens.


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