Source: Securities Daily
On December 22,热门新闻 a number of state -owned banks simultaneously lowered the deposit interest rate; on December 25, a number of joint -stock banks followed up to reduce the deposit interest rate.This means that my country's commercial banks have opened the third round of deposits this year's "interest rate cut", and the first two rounds occurred in June and September.
The author believes that this round of deposits "interest rate cuts" have many things in common with the first two rounds, such as sustainable relief of the downlink pressure on the net interest margin of the bank, improving the ability to serve the real economy and resisting risks; on the other handThe far -reaching significance in the first two rounds.Specifically, the "interest rate cut" of this round of deposits contains a four -out meaning.
First of all, the choice of time is meaningful.At the end of 2023, the "interest rate cut" of deposits was more conducive to reducing the cost of banks in 2024.In terms of incremental perspective, at the beginning of the year, it is often the peak period for banks to "open the door". Some brokerage agencies estimated that many banks in the first and second quarters of banks accounted for 40%and 30%of the new deposits of the year.In fact, in order to increase storage in 2024, some small and medium banks have recently raised the deposit interest rate.Therefore, the significance of reducing deposit interest rates at this time is self -evident to the reduction of liabilities for commercial banks.From the perspective of stock, a large number of regular deposits have expired in the first half of the year in recent years. At the end of the year, the "interest rate cut" at the end of the year has also helped reduce the pressure on the redemption price of the deposit in the coming year.
Secondly, it is meaningful to reduce the expansion of varieties.Compared with the previous round of deposits "interest rate cuts", the scope of the deposit variety of "interest rate cuts" extends to 3 months of regular deposits, semi -annual regular deposits, agreement deposits and notification deposits.For a long time, agreement deposits and notification deposits are varieties with higher cost rates in public and personal current deposit accounts. The "interest rate reduction" of the agreement deposit is expected to drive the cost of the cost of deposits of public live deposits.In addition, since the second half of this year, due to the downward trend of deposit interest rates, the storage households prefer regular and long -term deposits in order to lock high interest rates in advance, which has pushed up the cost of bank deposits.The risks brought by regular and long -term.
Furthermore, it is meaningful to alleviate the pressure on the asset end.From September 25 this year, commercial banks such as state -owned banks have taken the initiative to reduce the interest rate of stock mortgages.The Ministry of Monetary Policy of the People's Bank of China issued a statement on November 6 that the reduction of the interest rate of the stock loan has been basically completed, and the annual interest expenditure of the borrower's interest was 160 billion yuan to 170 billion yuan.However, for banks, the reduction of stock mortgage interest rates will put pressure on the asset side.In addition, since the fourth quarter of this year, the decline in interest rate purchase has also put pressure on bank assets.The "interest rate cut" of this deposit can not only alleviate the pressure of bank assets to a certain extent, but also opens room for the future LPR to continue to decline.
Finally, it is meaningful to promote consumption and investment.On the one hand, the deposit "interest rate cut" will change the asset allocation preferences of enterprises and residents to a certain extent, which will help boost consumption, expand domestic demand, improve market entities confidence and economic expectations; on the other hand, deposit "interest rate cuts" objectively promote"Deposit and Moving" helps some funds that pursue higher returns to the equity market, and provide more incremental funds for the A -share market.