In 1976, an increase of nearly 1.1 billion!Is India the world's largest population country "demographic dividend" or "population burden"?



In an interview with a reporter, the CEO Darrell Bricker CEO Darrell Bricker, CESOS, said, "Although India's current population growth has exceeded China, its economy is not as strong or developed as China. The problem is that India, IndiaCan you make good use of its growing population advantage? "

According to the United Nations Division's estimation and prediction of the global population, in April 2023, India's population reached 14.25775.55 million, surpassing China to become the world's largest country.When India was independent in 1947, the country's population was about 350 million, which means that in 76 years, India's population increased by nearly 1.1 billion.

Although becoming the largest country in the world is undoubtedly a landmark incident for India, many domestic and foreign population experts pointed out in an interview with the reporter of the Daily Economic News that the Indian population surpasses China, symbolic significance is greater than reality than reality.significance."If the Indian government cannot promote economic growth and increase residents' income, then the huge population may become a heavy burden."

In the face of more than 1.4 billion people, in front of Indian Prime Minister Modi, it is not just a huge employment problem. How to avoid turning the "demographic dividend" into a "population burden" is also the key to Modi's search for re -election next year.Population expert, the largest in the worldInvestigateOne of the company's iPSOS CEO Darrell Bricker also pointed out in an interview with each reporter, "Although India's current population growth has exceeded China, its economy is not as strong or developed as China.The question is whether India can use its increasingly growing population advantage."

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Become the first population, symbolic significance is greater than practical significance

"India's population surpasses China, symbolic significance is greater than practical significance.He Yafu, a member of the Population Research Scholar and a member of the expert group of the Yuyu Population Research Institution, pointed out in an interview with the reporter of the Daily Economic News.

In fact, from the perspective of population growth, India's population has already exceeded China. It is already a matter of time. It was just a matter of time -as early as January 2023, it was said that the Indian population surpassed China.Since its own data statistics, the United Nations and various population prediction software have been constantly predicting that India has become the largest country in the world. The predicted results include 2030, 2045, 2050, and even the end of this century. HoweverThe time that the Indian population surpasses China is faster than any previous forecast.

Xiang Jing, an associate researcher at the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of the Academy of Social ScienceThe large population base, high fertility level, and the inertia of population growth are the main reasons for the push of Indian population growth."This means that even if the overall fertility rate declines, at the large population base, India’ s birth scale is 20 million to 23 million each year in the short term, plusmedical serviceIncreasing levels, India's expected life expectancy has extended the net population of more than 10 million per year."

However, the reporter of "Daily Economic News" noticed that since the data released by the United Nations is not based on the official census of India, there is always a certain error in the estimation of the data.EssenceThe Indian population census in 2021 was postponed by the new crown epidemic to 2024, so the total population of India became the world's most specific time point may need to be corrected.

For the accuracy of data, the United Nations populationfundThe representative of the Society's India Andrea Volinar has said that the agency is confident in the number of investigations, "because it uses a very powerful method."Said, "This is a rough approximate value, a best guess."

Can India release "population dividends"?

For the "demographic dividend", the definition of the UN Population Fund is "the potential for economic growth that the population age structure may change". When the proportion of the labor age population (15 to 64 years old) is greater than the non -labor age population, it is most likely to obtain it.EssenceSo, can India convert "population advantages" into "demographic dividends"?

Question 1: Nearly half of the population is under 25 years old, but the manufacturing industry does not improve

The latest data from the International Labor Organization (ILO) shows that India's agricultural population accounts for more than 70%of the total population. For agricultural production, it has the advantage of sufficient labor.However, agriculture only accounts for IndiaGDP16.8%, and in recent years, the proportion has decreased in succession.Although India has superior and natural conditions, agricultural development is significantly lagging behind developed countries, and the level of agricultural production is relatively low.In addition, this part of the labor force is overalleducateThe level is low, and the agricultural sector can no longer absorb so much labor.

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Government intervention that has been implemented in the 1960sAgricultural productAlthough the unified purchase policy protects farmers' interests to a certain extent, it hinders India's agricultural marketization and large -scale process.With the decrease in agricultural output value year by year and decline in investment, Modi needs to create employment opportunities for millions of people entering the labor market each year.

"Daily Economic News" reporter noticed,Modi pushed the "Make in India" plan after taking office to vigorously introduce foreign investment and develop labor -intensive manufacturing, thereby increasing the manufacturing industry's proportion in GDP and driving employment.Modi will seek re -election by May 2024, and he has been promoting the share of manufacturing in the Indian economy from the current 17%to 25%.Modi's manufacturing transformation plan depends on India's huge young people.

According to Bloomberg report, say,Half of India's population is under the age of 30, and the population under the age of 25 accounts for nearly 50%.In this regard, Xiang Jing pointed out to reporters that "Modi's manufacturing transformation plan is based on its existing population conditions, and the huge youth labor force is very obvious."

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The report released by the United Nations on April 23, 2023 also pointed out that it is expected that in the middle of this century, the number of labor -age population in India and the proportion of the total population will continue to increase, providing opportunities for faster economic growth in the next decades.

However, although the Indian government is vigorously promoted, its manufacturing output is still growing slowly.According to the think tank CGGT, Indian manufacturing has recently risen, but there is still a large gap between Modi's "Make in India" strategic goal (25%).worldbankData Display,In the past 10 years, the added value of Indian manufacturing accounted for about 13%to 17%of GDP.

Why does the manufacturing industry have not improved in India, who have so strong labor?

India's business environment is not friendly is a main reason.According to the official data from CCTV, India's official data shows that in 7 years, 2783 multinational companies have closed their business, including Ford,FoxconnWait, accounting for about one -sixth of Indian multinational companies.

Secondly, although India is a large population country, it lacks effective labor.In an interview with the reporter of "Daily Economic News", He Yafu said that the transformation of the manufacturing industry cannot be separated from talent resources. However, "Although the age structure of India's population is much younger than China, India's employment rate is much lower than China."According to world data, the employment rate of the population over 15 years old in 2021 was 44.79%, while China was 64.06%.

In addition, India has low labor quality and lacks skilled workers.Taking only language as an example, India's junior high school and high school level are completely different from China.Indians who meet English only account for about 10%of the total population.According to He Yafu, the number of college students in India is not as good as China. In recent years, India's high -gross -enrollment rate has been close to 30%in recent years, while China is about 60%.

Xiang Jing also pointed out to each reporter that compared with the period of Chinese population dividends, India's demographic dividend is mainly reflected in scale, and the quality of population is an important factor to limit its manufacturing upgrade."India still has 150 million illiterate, accounting for about 10%of the population.Most of India's huge young labor population is not high and the technical quality is not high. If they cannot help provide labor skills training in time, they will instead become the bottleneck of the development of the manufacturing industry."

Secondly,India's laws and land privacy systems have also restricted India's development of labor -intensive industries.India's political development characteristics have led to its complex situation in land ownership and management mechanism.According to the India The Print News Network reported, the country's land law failed to balance the interests of the owner of the land and the development needs of India, which combined the investment enthusiasm of foreign companies.How to obtain land has also become a problem for multinational companies to develop in India.

at last,Labor -intensive industries require sufficient electricity and manpower protection, India's backward infrastructure and labor law, etc., limited these industries.

Problem 2: 难 of the Surname System

Under the rapid growth of the Indian population, the discussion of India's demographic dividend and population in economic growth has become increasingly heating up.

The "Analysis of the Research on the Population Bonus of India" released by the China National Information Center's Economic Foreign Ministry shows that India's population age structure is young and has "demographic dividends" that support economic growth, but the "demographic dividend" does not necessarily transform into economic development dividends.It depends on whether economic policies and supporting measures are matched with the population foundation.Affected by the multiple factors such as industrial structure, comprehensive population quality, social culture and gender discrimination, India is probably probably missed the period of the demographic dividend window.

The study mentioned,India's unique social and cultural factors have obvious suppression of the cross -regional flow of the population. Social and cultural factors such as the surname system, no main ethnic group, and lack of general language have caused the Indian population to be extremely poor.Difficulty.

About 79.8%of Indian residents believe in Hinduism. The core doctrine of Hinduism advocates the surname system. Although the surname system has been legally abolished, its impact is still deeply ingrained, leading to significant splitting in different strata in Indian society.

The surname system is an ancient feudal hierarchy system in Indian society. After the invasion of the Yaaren in 1200 BC, it gradually developed and developed, which is closely connected to Indianism.According to this system, people are divided into noble levels according to different occupations, passed down from generation to generation, and unchanged for life.There are four surnames in India: first -class: Brahmin, that is, monks; second -class: Yidi, samurai, princes, nobles; third class: vulc, the businessman; the fourth class: Shouhara, the farmer;Also called non -contact person.

For thousands of years, the surname system has a huge influence on the Indian people. It is so small that it is too small to have the political system, distribution system, social level order, etc.Influence.Although the Indian constitution clearly stipulates the abolition of the surname system, problems in villages and economically underdeveloped are still relatively serious.

Some analysts pointed out,The existence of the surname system has greatly limited the reasonable flow and utilization of human resources in society, leading to a hereditary and internal marriage system, which has caused social inequality and the gap between the rich and the poor.

In India, a few high -surnames have controlled more than half of the society's social wealth.There is a huge gap between the rich and the poor between Indian surnames.A report published by the Indian Ledi in Charity Agency in early 2023 shows that from 2012 to 2021, 40%of the wealth created by India flowed only to 1%of the population, and only 3%of the wealth flowed to 50%of the people at the bottom.

Problem 3: Loss of talents, low women's labor participation rate

In addition to the fact that the manufacturing industry has not improved and the surname system, India also faces many population issues such as high mortality rate, serious talent loss, and low women's labor participation rate.

First of all, although the growth rate of the Indian population has not slowed down, it is still the fastest among the BRICS countries, from a longer time span, India's population growth rate has shown a overall decline since the 1970s.In the 1980s, the Indian local government received financial support from the central government, and further implemented the country's population control policy, which caused the ten -year growth rate of Indian population from 21.54%from 1991-2001 to 17.64 from 2001 to 2011%.In the foreseeable future, India's population growth rate will continue to decline.

Second, in the past 30 years,Although Indian infant mortality has dropped by 70%, it is still high according to regional and international standards.In 1990, 89 people died every 1,000 newborn in India. By 2020, this number dropped to 27.Nevertheless, India's newborn mortality rate is still higher than that of neighboring Bangladesh (24 & Permil;), Nepal (24 & Permil; 23 & Permil;) and Sri Lanka (6 & Permil).

Third, India also faces the problem of loss of high -end talents.Every year, a large number of talents who have received higher education will go to the development of developed countries represented by the United States to seek development, leading to the negative number of net immigrants in India.According to data from the United Nations Division, due to immigrants, India's total population in 2021 decreased by 300,000.The UN forecast shows that India will continue to experience a negative net immigration until the next century.

at last,At present, the labor participation rate of Indian women is one of the lowest 20 countries in the world.According to the official data of India, Indian women's employment rate reached a peak of 35%in 2004, but it fell to about 25%by 2022.

Xiang Jing's analysis of "Daily Economic News" pointed out that (India) women's time for women to participate in the labor market is short, so that ordinary families will not invest in women.In addition, the labor market in India is mostly heavy physical strength, and women are not suitable.In a variety of factors, Indian women will not have too high labor participation rates.

Some experts are worried that if India cannot ensure the employment problem of the growing population, especially the employment of women, then the population growth will easily become a burden.And McKinsey estimated in a report in 2018,If the labor participation rate of Indian women is increased by 10%, the country's GDP can increase $ 552 billion.

In response to how the Indian government improves women's labor participation, it is proposed to Jing, "One is to increase low -skilled service industry positions, such as cleaners, waiters, etc.; Second, expand women's employment channels, such as encouraging women to engage in individual industrial and commercial business, handicraft products, etc.The third is to safeguard women's rights and improve women's status. Saying the same rights such as women and men have the same rights, employment, etc., and ensure that women have the right to have private property, enjoy education and public resources. "

GDP has grown rapidly, but per capita GDP is still low at medium level

When India's independence was independent of about 350 million in 1947, the Indian population increased by more than 1 billion years in the following 70 years.Especially in the past 30 years, India's population has shown a well -spraying growth.According to the UN forecast, by 2030, the Indian population will exceed 1.5 billion and will continue to grow slowly until the peak of 1.7 billion in 2064.

Faced with the rapid growth of the population, the discussion of India's "population explosion" or "excess population" is also endless.In 2019, Indian Prime Minister Modi called India's rapid population growth phenomenon "population explosion" and was worried about it.He said that the "population explosion" has affected India's sustainable development. "If people do not receive education and are unhealthy, they will not be happy whether they are families or the country."

Although India's economic growth before the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the recovery momentum in the post -epidemic era was relatively strong.However, there are still 800 million people in India that rely on the relief life provided by the government, the largest in the global rescue plan.

Data show that India's GDP in 2021 surpassed the United Kingdom and ranked fifth in the world.IMF's recent forecast data shows that India's GDP will surpass Japan in 2026 and become the fourth largest economy in the world, one year earlier than the original expected time.The scale of India's economy will surpass Germany in 2027 and become the third largest economy in the world after the United States and China.However,According to the latest data of the world, India's per capita GDP in 2021 is $ 2256.6, and it still belongs to low -income economies (the per capita GDP is between US $ 1086 and $ 4255).

Xiang Jing told the reporter of "Daily Economic News", "When the population growth is much faster than the resource supply level, we talk about the" population explosion 'or' excess population '. For the current population development trend, India will face the population growthFast challenge. India's current per capita GDP is a medium -sized income level.If the Indian government cannot promote economic growth and increase residential income, the huge population will become its burden."

It is worth noting that at the beginning of the 21st century, India's per capita GDP was about half of China.Today, more than 20 years later, the two countries are almost calm in their population. However, China's per capita GDP ($ 12741 in 2022) is already India (2022 is 2388.6 US dollars) 5.3 times.leap.

Population expert Darrell Bricker pointed out in an interview with "Daily Economic News" reporter, "Although India's current population growth has exceeded China, its economy is not as strong or developed as China.Use its increasingly growing population advantage. "

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