After the turbulent 2023, investors are optimistic about the Asian market in 2024



Zhitong Finance APP was informed that in 2023,Express information website the Asian market experienced a turbulent year, and the weakness of inflation, rising interest rates, and the weak recovery of major Asian economies dragged down the region's growth last year.

Nevertheless, analysts of PineBridge Investments said the prospects of the Asian market are still bright.

They believe that Asia will continue to maintain a strong growth momentum and "relatively promising prospects", they said that this will provide attractive potential for optional stock investors in 2024.

"The two largest economies in Asia should not be ignored. As the Chinese economy gradually stabilizes, it is necessary to be patient and focus on the investment of specific companies. At the same time, India has a significant lead in many industries -provided that investors are concerned about excitementValuation. "

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is also optimistic about the prospects of the area.Krishna Srinivasan, director of the Asia -Pacific region of the agency, predicts that the growth rates in Asia in 2023 and 2024 will reach 4.6%and 4.2%, respectively. In contrast, the global growth forecasts in 2023 and 2024 are 3%and 2.9%, respectively.

Rate reduction

Looking forward to the new year, interest rate cuts will undoubtedly become the focus of investors' attention.

The dot -matrix diagram released by the Federal Reserve last December shows that officials are expected to cut interest rates at 75 basis points in 2024, and 100 basis points will be reduced in 2025.

In the past cycles, central banks in Asia and around the world often follow the Federal Reserve.

Although some central banks such as the Fed of Australia still warned that they are going to take further action to curb inflation, at present, the pace of interest rate hikes of major Asian economies have stopped.The central banks of Southeast Asian countries have basically maintained interest rates and no longer raising interest rates, but the central banks such as the Philippine Central Bank still have an eagle attitude.

The only exception is the Bank of Japan, and investors will closely pay close attention to whether the central bank will withdraw from the negative interest rate policy.

In the past 19 months, the overall inflation rate of Japan is higher than the 2%goal of the Bank of Japan. Under the guidance of the Japan Trade Union Federation, Japan's spring salary negotiations are expected to rise by 5%.Homin Lee, a senior macro strategist at LOMBARD ODIER, said these conditions support the normalization of policies.

Lee predicts that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates to 0%in 2024 (from the current negative 0.1%) and "gradually cancel" the upper limit of the 10 -year government bonds in Japan, "Especially the daily promise to buy unlimited purchase at unlimited purchases at unlimited purchasesThe way to defend the upper limit has been canceled. "

Reit and technology industry are expected to grow

With the relief of inflation and the decline in interest rates, which field will there be potential growth space?

Hebe Chen, an analyst at the IG International market, said that the inflation rate may be seen in 2024 and the slowdown in economic growth may be conducive to the infrastructure and real estate industry.She said that in a broad sense, this will help the energy sector and commodities, as well as industries that promote the artificial intelligence revolution.

More specifically, she is optimistic about the Asian Real Estate Investment Trust Fund (REIT) and the technology industry.

With the decline in interest rates, REIT will provide more financing options and make asset acquisition or asset recycling.This will eventually push up the actual return of REIT investors.

In addition, Chen said that the potential upward trend of the global scientific and technological cycle is being formed, and Taiwan, Taiwan, Vietnam and Singapore may perform well because their manufacturing and R & D facilities are more concentrated.

Chen also predicts that although the Chinese stock market performs poorly in 2023, "potential changes" may occur in 2024.

She said that with the support of government measures and export prospects, China, as the world's second largest economy, may have a mild recovery, and added that global technology recovery may help improve China's exports.

Geopolitics and elections

In the new year, geopolitical development will still receive close attention.

Chen said that elections in Taiwan, India, and the United States will bring "great changes in economic and diplomatic in the Asia -Pacific region."

She pointed out: "The rapid evolutionary international situation inevitably exacerbates uncertainty and anxiety, which will make it difficult for global investors to find comfort."

In addition, next year's US election is also one of the focus.

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