2024 Don't just stare at stimulating consumption and encourage buying a house. "Increase income" is the optimal solution



  If you want to be a strong country,热点新闻 you must be rich in the people. This is the basic conclusion obtained by the experience and lessons of China and the world for thousands of years.Over the ancient and modern Chinese and foreign, we can't find a successful example of ignoring the rich people but obtaining the country's prosperity.

  At the beginning of the article, everyone may be in the clouds and fog, and the book is taken back and said.

  Sui Yunyun, the commercial bank announced the third deposit interest rate reduction, and the bank shouted the whole society with action: not welcome deposits, especially long -term deposits.This means that the era of deposits can not make money, and the era when currency depreciation cannot be resisted.In other words, the matter of saving money is getting more and less.

  Unexpectedly, in December, LPR was not moving. This data is to lock in the mortgage interest rate of the whole year next year. Now it will not be installed.The bank has repaired its asset liability statement for a whole year.

  I didn't wait for the loan to reduce interest rates, and when the deposit was reduced, the essence was that the bank continued to subsidize the deposit subsidy of the people — the interest expenses saved by the deposit interest rate reduction, which is much higher than the cost of loan interest rate reduction.Essence

  This incident has been talked about. Why do you say the same thing twice?

  Because of this incident, the true status of the current Chinese consumption, loans, and savings is well reflected, and it also exposes the core issues facing the current economic growth: the residential department can not add leverage.

  Even the people have long been desertured to policies, because everyone has recognized that the macro policy is "not true."

  First look at the three sets of data: 1. In 2013, household deposits increased by 1.784 trillion yuan, and another 14.69 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of this year was equivalent to 10,000 more people across the country.

  This is a new chart of resident deposits in the past 15 years. In other words, in the past two years, we have once again practiced the concept of "Chinese love to save" again.As a result, the money of the people across the country reached an unprecedented 13.553 trillion yuan, that is, the per capita deposit exceeded 90,000 yuan.

  Why are you keen to save money in the past two years?This is an old -fashioned topic. Everyone has a scale in their hearts, but what is not far away is that the primary purpose of saving money is not to earn me thin interest, but to prevent it.

  At the macro level, it is unwilling to increase the well -being and guarantee investment in people's livelihood. Hundreds of millions of ordinary people can only use traditional ways to save money to deal with unknown risks.

  Especially for aging migrant workers, the previous article said that due to the facts of the factory's holidays and the cold winter of real estate, such people have been unemployed and salary reduction have long become the norm.How do they work hard to make more money.

  Not to mention that they also carry pressure on mortgages, supporting the elderly, and breeding children.Therefore, it can ensure that they only live a stable and sufficient deposit.

  2. In the past year, residents' loans have only increased by 5.09 trillion yuan, and regular deposits have increased by 1.663 trillion.Among them, the main source of the profit of commercial banks has reduced 440 billion yuan in the past year. In the final analysis, the residential department is repaying and loan in advance.

  The negative growth of mortgages, but the leverage rate of the residential department in the first three quarters of this year still increased by 1.9%. The original operating loan and consumer loan were the main way for residents to add leverage.

  The "exchange loan" promoting the liability ratio of the residential department is the first time that it happened, which is essentially different from the liability ratio of the liabilities in previous years -it used to actively increase leverage and now actively reduce liabilities.

  3. None of them do not consume, do not buy a house, or loan. As a result, the CPI continues to operate at a low level. In November, it decreased by 0.5%year -on -year. It hit a new low since September 2009. The entire market trembled in the haze of shrinking.

  In addition, according to data released by the central bank, M2 increased by 10%year -on -year in November, and M1 increased by 1.3%year -on -year.M1-M2 scissors have been newly low since January 2022.

  The previous article said that the difference between the growth rate of M1-M2 continued to decline, indicating that there is less living money in the market and more dead money.The investment opportunities are limited.

  It is reflected in reality. Everyone is unwilling to invest. They all know that the interest of the bank is very low, but it is better than the blind investment -the top five wealth companies are thunderous, and hundreds of thousands of high net worth individuals have been harvested; the global stock market has soaredIn the year, we retreated at 2900 victory ... All these, tossing around and found that lying down is the most reliable approach to keep wealth.

  It used to be "I don't finance, I don't care about me", and now it is "I don't make financial management, I don't leave me."

  Looking back, something expert said two years ago, "Buying financial management, buying funds, buying stocks, and even buying a house may make you return to poverty."

  Rising to the macroeconomic is the speed of currency circulation, the economic operation efficiency decreases, and the vitality weakens.Among them, the sluggish sales of real estate are one of the main reasons that cannot be ignored.

  Based on these three naked reality, let's look at the actions of commercial banks to reduce deposit interest rates. The bank's reduction of operating pressure is the factors that float on the surface. In fact, the deeper reasons are that the invisible hand hopes to reduce the savings rate. It will lie in the bank in the bank.The money rushed out, and went to the market to eat, drink, play, buy a house and buy a car.

  As long as money is flowing, as long as consumer transactions exist, they can drive economic growth. This is the situation that the senior management hopes to see.

  Looking back, although the achievement of 5%of the economic growth goals in 2023 is stable, it must be acknowledged that this is achieved by accumulating debts. It is destined not to last long: in the first three quarters of this year, the macro leverage rate increased by 13.5%.The year -on -year growth rate of debt was 12.5%.

  In other words, it is unsuccessful, because the income is very unstable now. Whether it is in the system or the system, the life is very tight, but the expenditure is soaring. ThereforeMethod.

  Based on this, the interest rate cut next year is inevitable, that is, LPR reduction is a high probability event, but do not think that the loan interest rate will be much more than the deposit interest rate, because banks are never charity.

  In the long run, my country must be low interest rates, or even negative interest rates, because to achieve steady growth, everyone needs more loans.In the context of continuous decline in income, only the cost of loan can be matched with low income, so that everyone can carry debt.

  Low interest rates are often accompanied by incoming economy. The biggest feature is that money will become more and more difficult to make, and the cake is so large. If you want to make more, you can only roll it hard.This is what we usually say, the prosperity cycle, everyone makes a fortune together; the downward cycle has intensified the division of the rich and the poor.

  In addition, from the perspective of historical laws, in the era of low interest rates, everyone has to be more vigilant, because many seemingly beautiful things are actually hidden dark: you want its benefits, it wants you to want youprincipal.

  I don't want to spill cold water, but I still want to ask, if the deposit is really zero interest rate, there are still people who are keen to save money. How can I break it?

  The Internet is discussing "where to go". In fact, for most people, "Where is the money" is probably the main problem.

  This also involves a very important issue. Is the deposit in the bank the most people or the minority?

  The truth is actually very cruel, and less than 2%of people in reality have 80%of the wealth.

  Therefore, even if it continues to increase the stimulus consumption in 2024, it is not helpful to continue to pay the first payment and encourage buying a house to buy a house, because people who really need have no money, and there is no shortage of rich people's houses and cars.The golden game can be consumed. Now even the upper limit is set up, and there are fewer channels for rich people to spend money.

  In summary, corporate loans have also been produced, but the income of the residential department has declined and has not formed consumer orders. Instead, there are few money to exist in banks. This is why domestic demand cannot rise.

  In other words, residents' income decreases → reduced consumption → reduction of enterprise orders → profit shrinkage → no money to pay wages → reduction of residential income → continuing to reduce consumption, forming a closed loop.

  Increase income, this is the point that the current economic cycle is urgently needed.

  How to solve this problem?

  What do you do now?On the one hand, a lot of loans from the production side.

  In the past year, non -financial corporate loans have increased by 1.834 trillion, but the deposit period has decreased by 1.76 trillion.On the other side, the profit of corporate profits in the first 10 months decreased by 7.8%year -on -year.

  The facts are in front of you, and desperately transfusion can only give the enterprise to renew, but not to make them profitable.Especially for small and medium -sized enterprises, the current situation is very embarrassing, and there is no profit space to rely on loan blood transfusion.

  On the other hand, government departments have increased financial stimuli.There are two most representative methods. One is to issue some new local debt quotas in 2024; the other is that the national fiscal deficit rate rate increases from 3%to 3.8%, adding 100 trillion special government bonds.

  As we all know, the demand comes from the three departments of residents, governments and enterprises, and now relied on the government to increase investment.

  So what methods are available in 2024?

  The root cause of income is allocating, and now the distribution is not aged and sensitive.

  Some people say that learning the United States is not unable to learn directly, but the cost of inflation may be greater because we cannot pay the global bill of buying through interest rate hikes.

  It does not seem to be practical, but the water release of other ways seems to be inevitable.Theoretically, as long as the interest difference is not inverted, the reversing operation of the long -term and short -term interest difference can continue, until the saving money is unprofitable, the purpose is to force everyone to reduce the savings as much as possible.

  Of course, there is a cost that is cost -effective, which will increase inflation and raise the boundaries of survival costs.In the case of the disappearance of the technical dividend and the economic downturn, it can only be lighter to each other. Let's pay the salary first.

  What about demolition of houses and Ra stock markets?It turns out that this is the fastest way to make the people rich, but the problem is that it is difficult to force it through these two channels. One is that the house cannot be dismantled and the side effects are large.The second is that although the bottom signal at the stock market is obvious and the supervision is frequently shot, the confidence of most people is smashed by the 708 (today (12.26) index of this year's deep bear market, a minimum closing price in 2023).If you want to be immediate, unless you break the reshaping and change the system from the source, this is even tantamount to the night.

  However, I noticed that in the past few days, many people said that the housing stocks will usher in a large rebound in 2024. I will not be able to place it.

  Finally, a few more words, the fundamental problem of the current economic cycle is that the residents' income is insufficient, and the income comes from full employment and corporate performance. This requires enough domestic and foreign orders to support.

  However, foreign orders are shrinking, and domestic orders cannot make up for the gap in the short term. Most people who are not connected in Qinghuang are doomed to suffer, and at the same time, they cannot be eliminated.

  At the macro level, it should be more concentrated and inefficient to the simple rude management of the past few years, the chickens and egg -type leeks, the resources are highly concentrated and inefficient, and we cannot repeat the same mistakes.

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